At the end of October, some people in the glass industry felt "a very interesting situation": while the production cost remained relatively high, the price of glass was falling; while the price of glass was falling, the supply of goods was not booming. As a result, he predicted that the production and operation situation of glass enterprises in the next three months is not optimistic.
After entering November, although many original film manufacturers began to adjust the price increase, downstream companies replenished goods on demand, and the transaction situation was average. Manufacturers are also becoming cautious about price adjustments in the short term.
The traditional glass demand peak season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" shows that the peak season is not so strong. The downstream demand is weak. How should we spend this winter? Wang Yixiu, a researcher at the Guangzhou Futures Research Center, analyzed that with the continuous increase in costs, the profits of current float glass companies are declining, and they are currently in a state of small profits. If profits continue to decline, more glass production lines with longer kiln age will stop production. build.
In the view of industry insiders, when the futures market runs below the cost line, it not only provides a favorable opportunity for production companies to overhaul, but companies can also use futures tools to buy insurance or buy delivery through the market to meet the regular spot order demand. .
"Roller coaster" original film price
Since the beginning of this year, the spot price of glass has fluctuated greatly. Reflected on the futures market, the glass futures in the first quarter showed a volatile and strong trend; in the second quarter, under the influence of good downstream demand and low inventory, the disk showed a volatile upward trend; the third quarter was affected by the decline in demand, the accumulation of inventory, and the weakening of macro data. Affected, the late disk showed a volatile downward trend.
Wang Yixiu analyzed that in the first half of the year, more float glass production lines were resumed, and the production capacity increased significantly. With the continuous increase in output in July and the tightening of real estate policies, real estate companies' funds continued to be tight, coupled with the interference of external factors such as the epidemic and floods, the inventory gradually showed a trend of continuing to accumulate. The current inventory has exceeded the previous high value and hit a record high.
"If there is no major overhaul in the later period, the start-up and output will still be at a high level." Wang Yixiu said, the float glass production line that has not been cold repaired for more than 8 years accounts for 12.5% of the current production capacity, and the kiln has not been cold repaired for more than 12 years. The float glass production line of China accounts for 3.54% of the current production capacity. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cold repair of the glass factory.
In terms of demand, real estate companies continue to tighten their funding, and their willingness and ability to reserve land have declined significantly. Judging from the latest data, the recent year-on-year decline in new construction starts due to funding constraints has been significant, and may still be weak in the later period. Automobile production showed a downward trend year-on-year, and the production-sales rate was lower than the same period of previous years.
"The real estate funding policy has been relaxed, and funding may improve. However, under the stricter control of pre-sale funds, the funds of real estate companies are still tight, and the demand may still be weak." Wang Yixiu reminded that follow-up should pay attention to the latest real estate policies. Changes.
The long-term market still exists
It is understood that the cost of glass companies in the northern region that use natural gas as the main fuel has reached 2,200 yuan/ton to more than 2,300 yuan/ton, while the spot price of 5mm large plates in some companies has fallen below 2,000 yuan/ton, and profits continue to be compressed.
The person in charge of a glass enterprise in Shandong believes that once the loss intensifies, the suspension of production and water release of the production line will form a small climax in winter. Affected by rising fuel prices in winter and low sales season, manufacturers generally choose to stop production for cold repairs in winter.
On November 15, two 900-ton/day photovoltaic glass production lines of Anhui Wuhu Xinyi Glass Co., Ltd. and a 600-ton/day float glass production line of Shandong Zibo Jinjing Group were released for cold repair.
"The market is now undergoing a natural bottom-finding process. This bottom should be when most companies have fallen below the cost line and the entire industry has begun to lose money. After the fall is infallible, it will usher in a rebound." The person in charge of the glass company said that the market is expected to cut production and stop production. The bottom of the price depends on the average manufacturing cost of the glass industry after the November heating season. After the Winter Olympics, there will be a resumption of work in the market in March next year. This is worth looking forward to for glass companies.
In the view of Founder Interim Futures analyst Wei Chaoming, the margin of real estate regulation is stabilizing, and the demand for glass at the completion end will eventually come although it is late; in the era of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, urban renewal demand is no matter whether it is from demand or from continuous In terms of sex, it is enough to become a new growth point for glass demand after newly-built commercial houses. The long-term market for glass still exists.
Skillfully use futures tools to improve the ability to resist risks
In January of this year, due to the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Hebei Zhengda Glass Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Zhengda Glass) was unable to deliver goods to customers in Jiangsu and Anhui on schedule. Pang Pujun, deputy general manager of Zhengda Glass, was very anxious.
"Later, we made some purchases on futures and shipped the purchased glass from Hubei to the hands of customers." Pang Pujun said. Because it was the end of the lunar year, the price of the original purchased was lower-1700 yuan/ton.
Zhengda Glass usually ships 30 tons per car to these customers, and requires one car to send one car. However, at that time, a customer comprehensively considered the futures disk price trend and the demand after the Spring Festival and requested to send 5 cars of glass at a time. As a result, the 5 car glass was used until April. In this process, the price of original glass has risen rapidly.
"He is very happy, even if he does not process the glass, the income is very high." Pang Pujun shared the above case at the online conference of the CP Glass Industry Base held on November 16.
What is the ending of this story? It is the customers who have tasted the sweetness that they often call Pang Pujun to discuss how to use glass futures tools to help their business.
"From the experience of the past few years, the operation of futures disks below the cost line provides a favorable opportunity for production companies to overhaul. Enterprises can buy insurance or buy delivery through disks to meet the regular spot order demand." Wei Chaoming said.
Liu Huizhao, a researcher at Hainan Chaoxia Private Equity Management Co., Ltd., believes that the production volume of glass original glass companies is fixed, but the price of glass will always fluctuate. Manufacturers must ensure that they can digest the daily output and have the expectation of stable sales prices. , This demand can be met through futures. Glass traders in the midstream can optimize inventory management through glass futures, and use futures to reserve goods when the price of glass rises and establish virtual inventories. When prices are falling and spot liquidity is poor, futures can be used to reduce the risk of inventory depreciation and improve the enterprise's ability to resist risks.
For downstream glass processing plants, the most important thing is to earn stable processing profits. However, when the price of the original film fluctuates sharply, if the processing plant cannot lock the cost of the original film well, it will face the risk of loss and even dare not take orders. In the first half of this year, when the prices of original glass sheets generally rose, many downstream processing companies faced such a dilemma.
Liu Huizhao cited a virtual case: a glass tempering plant received an order for 5mm tempered glass for doors and windows of 40,000 square meters from a downstream enterprise in June this year, with a processing profit of 2 yuan per square meter and a delivery time of 3 months.
The tempering factory was worried that the loss of the original film would repeat itself after receiving the order, but it suffered from capital and warehouse restrictions and was unable to immediately stock up on the original film inventory. At this time, the futures price was lower than the spot price of 80 yuan/ton, and the tempering plant chose to buy 25 lots in the futures market to lock in the price of raw materials. In the subsequent processing process, with the delivery of the order, the processing plant closed the corresponding long futures order.
Through this operation, the tempering plant not only avoided the risk of loss caused by the subsequent increase in the price of raw materials, but also saved the capital cost of stocking. At the same time, because of the return of the spot price difference, the processing plant can also obtain an extra 0.5 yuan/square meter extra profit.
"Through futures, processing plants can easily lock the original film cost, stabilize processing profits, better increase processing volume, and ultimately enhance the market competitive advantage of glass deep processing enterprises." Liu Huizhao said.
After entering November, although many original film manufacturers began to adjust the price increase, downstream companies replenished goods on demand, and the transaction situation was average. Manufacturers are also becoming cautious about price adjustments in the short term.
The traditional glass demand peak season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" shows that the peak season is not so strong. The downstream demand is weak. How should we spend this winter? Wang Yixiu, a researcher at the Guangzhou Futures Research Center, analyzed that with the continuous increase in costs, the profits of current float glass companies are declining, and they are currently in a state of small profits. If profits continue to decline, more glass production lines with longer kiln age will stop production. build.
In the view of industry insiders, when the futures market runs below the cost line, it not only provides a favorable opportunity for production companies to overhaul, but companies can also use futures tools to buy insurance or buy delivery through the market to meet the regular spot order demand. .
"Roller coaster" original film price
Since the beginning of this year, the spot price of glass has fluctuated greatly. Reflected on the futures market, the glass futures in the first quarter showed a volatile and strong trend; in the second quarter, under the influence of good downstream demand and low inventory, the disk showed a volatile upward trend; the third quarter was affected by the decline in demand, the accumulation of inventory, and the weakening of macro data. Affected, the late disk showed a volatile downward trend.
Wang Yixiu analyzed that in the first half of the year, more float glass production lines were resumed, and the production capacity increased significantly. With the continuous increase in output in July and the tightening of real estate policies, real estate companies' funds continued to be tight, coupled with the interference of external factors such as the epidemic and floods, the inventory gradually showed a trend of continuing to accumulate. The current inventory has exceeded the previous high value and hit a record high.
"If there is no major overhaul in the later period, the start-up and output will still be at a high level." Wang Yixiu said, the float glass production line that has not been cold repaired for more than 8 years accounts for 12.5% of the current production capacity, and the kiln has not been cold repaired for more than 12 years. The float glass production line of China accounts for 3.54% of the current production capacity. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cold repair of the glass factory.
In terms of demand, real estate companies continue to tighten their funding, and their willingness and ability to reserve land have declined significantly. Judging from the latest data, the recent year-on-year decline in new construction starts due to funding constraints has been significant, and may still be weak in the later period. Automobile production showed a downward trend year-on-year, and the production-sales rate was lower than the same period of previous years.
"The real estate funding policy has been relaxed, and funding may improve. However, under the stricter control of pre-sale funds, the funds of real estate companies are still tight, and the demand may still be weak." Wang Yixiu reminded that follow-up should pay attention to the latest real estate policies. Changes.
The long-term market still exists
It is understood that the cost of glass companies in the northern region that use natural gas as the main fuel has reached 2,200 yuan/ton to more than 2,300 yuan/ton, while the spot price of 5mm large plates in some companies has fallen below 2,000 yuan/ton, and profits continue to be compressed.
The person in charge of a glass enterprise in Shandong believes that once the loss intensifies, the suspension of production and water release of the production line will form a small climax in winter. Affected by rising fuel prices in winter and low sales season, manufacturers generally choose to stop production for cold repairs in winter.
On November 15, two 900-ton/day photovoltaic glass production lines of Anhui Wuhu Xinyi Glass Co., Ltd. and a 600-ton/day float glass production line of Shandong Zibo Jinjing Group were released for cold repair.
"The market is now undergoing a natural bottom-finding process. This bottom should be when most companies have fallen below the cost line and the entire industry has begun to lose money. After the fall is infallible, it will usher in a rebound." The person in charge of the glass company said that the market is expected to cut production and stop production. The bottom of the price depends on the average manufacturing cost of the glass industry after the November heating season. After the Winter Olympics, there will be a resumption of work in the market in March next year. This is worth looking forward to for glass companies.
In the view of Founder Interim Futures analyst Wei Chaoming, the margin of real estate regulation is stabilizing, and the demand for glass at the completion end will eventually come although it is late; in the era of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, urban renewal demand is no matter whether it is from demand or from continuous In terms of sex, it is enough to become a new growth point for glass demand after newly-built commercial houses. The long-term market for glass still exists.
Skillfully use futures tools to improve the ability to resist risks
In January of this year, due to the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Hebei Zhengda Glass Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Zhengda Glass) was unable to deliver goods to customers in Jiangsu and Anhui on schedule. Pang Pujun, deputy general manager of Zhengda Glass, was very anxious.
"Later, we made some purchases on futures and shipped the purchased glass from Hubei to the hands of customers." Pang Pujun said. Because it was the end of the lunar year, the price of the original purchased was lower-1700 yuan/ton.
Zhengda Glass usually ships 30 tons per car to these customers, and requires one car to send one car. However, at that time, a customer comprehensively considered the futures disk price trend and the demand after the Spring Festival and requested to send 5 cars of glass at a time. As a result, the 5 car glass was used until April. In this process, the price of original glass has risen rapidly.
"He is very happy, even if he does not process the glass, the income is very high." Pang Pujun shared the above case at the online conference of the CP Glass Industry Base held on November 16.
What is the ending of this story? It is the customers who have tasted the sweetness that they often call Pang Pujun to discuss how to use glass futures tools to help their business.
"From the experience of the past few years, the operation of futures disks below the cost line provides a favorable opportunity for production companies to overhaul. Enterprises can buy insurance or buy delivery through disks to meet the regular spot order demand." Wei Chaoming said.
Liu Huizhao, a researcher at Hainan Chaoxia Private Equity Management Co., Ltd., believes that the production volume of glass original glass companies is fixed, but the price of glass will always fluctuate. Manufacturers must ensure that they can digest the daily output and have the expectation of stable sales prices. , This demand can be met through futures. Glass traders in the midstream can optimize inventory management through glass futures, and use futures to reserve goods when the price of glass rises and establish virtual inventories. When prices are falling and spot liquidity is poor, futures can be used to reduce the risk of inventory depreciation and improve the enterprise's ability to resist risks.
For downstream glass processing plants, the most important thing is to earn stable processing profits. However, when the price of the original film fluctuates sharply, if the processing plant cannot lock the cost of the original film well, it will face the risk of loss and even dare not take orders. In the first half of this year, when the prices of original glass sheets generally rose, many downstream processing companies faced such a dilemma.
Liu Huizhao cited a virtual case: a glass tempering plant received an order for 5mm tempered glass for doors and windows of 40,000 square meters from a downstream enterprise in June this year, with a processing profit of 2 yuan per square meter and a delivery time of 3 months.
The tempering factory was worried that the loss of the original film would repeat itself after receiving the order, but it suffered from capital and warehouse restrictions and was unable to immediately stock up on the original film inventory. At this time, the futures price was lower than the spot price of 80 yuan/ton, and the tempering plant chose to buy 25 lots in the futures market to lock in the price of raw materials. In the subsequent processing process, with the delivery of the order, the processing plant closed the corresponding long futures order.
Through this operation, the tempering plant not only avoided the risk of loss caused by the subsequent increase in the price of raw materials, but also saved the capital cost of stocking. At the same time, because of the return of the spot price difference, the processing plant can also obtain an extra 0.5 yuan/square meter extra profit.
"Through futures, processing plants can easily lock the original film cost, stabilize processing profits, better increase processing volume, and ultimately enhance the market competitive advantage of glass deep processing enterprises." Liu Huizhao said.